Wastewater Surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in Rural Kentucky, 2021-2023

Wastewater testing for SARS-CoV-2 provided useful public health information during the COVID-19 pandemic yet was underutilized in rural communities. We addressed this gap by implementing wastewater surveillance and assessing its performance in 10 communities in Eastern Kentucky. We collected wastewater samples 1-2 times weekly at 10 wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) from May 2021 until April 2023 and measured SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations using polymerase chain reaction testing. We calculated time-lagged correlations between wastewater concentrations and county-level reported COVID-19 cases by site. We developed a generalized linear model to estimate COVID-19 incidence from wastewater SARS-CoV-2 concentrations. The 10 participating WWTPs served 2430 to 35,575 customers, and 90% were in rural counties. We cumulatively analyzed 818 wastewater samples. Correlations between wastewater SARS-CoV-2 concentrations and COVID-19 cases were significant at seven of the WWTPs and were strongest during the Delta variant period. The incidence density model predicted more COVID-19 cases during the latter study period (May 2022-April 2023) than were officially reported. Wastewater surveillance data in these rural communities corroborated clinical case data and may have more accurately described community disease levels later in the pandemic.