Horizontal and vertical gene transfer shape the plasmid host range in surface-associated microbial systems

Broad-host-range plasmids drive the spread of antibiotic resistance, particularly in surface-associated microbial systems prevalent in natural and host-associated environments. Predicting their realized host range is challenging because both transconjugant proliferation (vertical gene transfer, VGT) and conjugation (horizontal gene transfer, HGT) contribute to transconjugant diversity. Here, we hypothesized that the realized host range is determined by the interplay between VGT and HGT. We experimentally tested this hypothesis by analyzing transconjugant diversity under conditions that differ in their ability to support bacterial growth. Fast-growth conditions increased transconjugant abundance but reduced diversity, whereas slow-growth conditions supported fewer but more diverse transconjugants. We complemented these experiments with individual-based simulations that explicitly incorporated both VGT and HGT. Our results demonstrate that the realized host range is jointly governed by initial HGT events and subsequent VGT-driven expansion, highlighting the importance of integrating transfer and post-transfer dynamics when predicting plasmid-mediated antibiotic resistance spread.