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Updated: Mar 31, 2026
A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
Published on: December 9, 2015
Retrospective analysis of seasonal patterns in atrial fibrillation incidence and temperature fluctuations
Pooja Saithya Pillarisetti1, Karthik Mathiyalagan2, Shanmukha Koppolu3
1Department of General Medicine, A.C.S.R Government Medical College Nellore Andhra Pradesh, India.
Abstract:
Atrial fibrillation (AF) remains the most common sustained arrhythmia contributing significantly to global morbidity and mortality. This retrospective study analyzed 126,389 adult patients across three tertiary hospitals from 2018 to 2022 to assess the seasonal variation in AF incidence with respect to ambient temperature. The incidence of AF was significantly higher during winter and early spring, showing an inverse correlation with mean daily temperature (r = -0.81, p < 0.001), particularly among elderly, hypertensive, and diabetic individuals. Cold-induced vasoconstriction, increased sympathetic tone, and inflammatory responses may underlie the seasonal rise in AF admissions. Recognizing these temperature-related variations can assist in identifying high-risk periods and guide preventive strategies to mitigate the burden of AF.
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