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Global stalled tropical cyclones in a changing climate
Zifeng Deng1,2, Gabriele Villarini3,4, Wenchang Yang5
1School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Building and Urban Science, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, China.
Nature Communications
|March 30, 2026
Summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) that stall cause greater localized damage. Climate warming reduces TC stalling globally but intensifies rainfall from these storms, especially over land.
Area of Science:
- Climatology
- Meteorology
- Oceanography
Background:
- Tropical cyclone (TC) stalling, where storms wander in small areas, intensifies localized damage.
- Global understanding of TC stalling and its climate change response is limited.
Purpose of the Study:
- To conduct a comprehensive global analysis of TC stalling.
- To investigate the response of TC stalling to climate warming.
Main Methods:
- Utilized observational data and climate model simulations for global analysis.
- Analyzed steering wind vectors, TC location, and exposure to weak steering flow.
Main Results:
- Revealed hemispheric asymmetry: Southern Hemisphere basins are more prone to TC stalling.
- Warming climate decreases global TC stalling probability but increases storm rainfall, particularly over land.
- Identified steering wind and TC location as primary stalling drivers, varying by basin.
Conclusions:
- Climate warming alters TC stalling dynamics, reducing occurrence but increasing rainfall intensity.
- Changes in weak steering flow exposure significantly influence TC stalling probability under warming conditions.
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