Climate change impacts on vegetation dynamics and transhumant pastoralism in the Western Himalayas

Mountain pastoral livelihoods in the Western Himalaya face compounded pressures from warming, shifting rainfall, and the spread of invasive alien plant species (IAPS), yet integrated evidence linking climate dynamics, vegetation change, and livelihood outcomes remains limited. This study examines how long-term climate trends, IAPS, and shifting livelihood conditions interact along the elevational migration routes of the Bakkarwal pastoralists (BPs) in Jammu and Kashmir, India. We integrate 42 years of gridded daily climate records (1980-2021) with focus group discussions (FGDs) and a structured questionnaire (n = 80) to assess climate variability, perceived vegetation change, and livelihood impacts. The results show that temperatures have risen (~ 0.85 °C daytime, ~ 0.70 °C nighttime) significantly in low and high-elevation districts, with stronger post-2000 signals and greater high-elevation sensitivity, while rainfall has redistributed seasonally rather than showing a uniform trend. Field and survey evidence point to the upslope spread of IAPS (Lantana camara, Parthenium hysterophorus, and Ageratum conyzoides) displacing the native fodder and increased overbrowsing pressure on remaining shrubs and trees. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) of perception data identified latent dimensions of the vegetation and livelihood factors improving the interpretability of the observed dataset. These dimensions reveal how climate-induced vegetation dynamics interact with socio-economic changes such as youth's preference for education and salaried jobs, policies that impact grazing access, and changes in herding and migration routines which are altering social relationships, reducing the intergenerational knowledge transfer, and gradually reshaping the cultural values that have long supported Bakkarwal pastoralism. The overall findings envisage that developing the resilience in their socio-ecological system will be subject to how they cope with the upcoming climatic risk, IAPS preservation, restoration of critical forage sites, and community-based social policies that support ease and conspicuous livelihood transitions for the BPs.