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Updated: Apr 1, 2026

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
Methodological Proposal for the Quantification and Integrated Assessment of Disaster Risk: Application to the Case of
Cristobal Lorenzo Trigo Gálvez1, Pedro Arcos González2
1Unit for Research in Emergency and Disaster, https://ror.org/006gksa02University of Oviedo, Asturias, Spain.
Objective:
Disaster risk assessment is essential in territories increasingly affected by climate-related hazards. This study applies a sequential methodology for quantifying and assessing disaster risk using open-source information, focusing on Coquimbo, Chile, a coastal city with high exposure.
Methods:
A 7-step model was developed, integrating sectorization by Neighborhood Units, hazard identification, recurrence analysis (2000-2024), and the evaluation of vulnerabilities, capacities, and exposure. Hazards included earthquakes, tsunamis, droughts, wildfires, and landslides. Resilience was calculated through weighted vulnerability and capacity variables, while exposure was estimated using infrastructure values. Disaster risk was computed as the product of hazard, resilience, and exposure.
Results:
Coquimbo shows heterogeneity. UV06 Sindempart, UV10 El Llano, and UV15 La Herradura demonstrated capacities, while UV12 El Culebrón and UV17-UV18 Tierras Blancas showed the highest vulnerabilities. Coastal UVs such as UV05 Baquedano and UV13 Guayacán concentrate exposure due to infrastructure and population density. Earthquakes and tsunamis were identified as the most recurrent hazards. The methodology generated 150 risk estimates across 30 Neighborhood Units.
Conclusions:
The methodology enables a structured, replicable evaluation of disaster risk, even with limited data. Its application in Coquimbo highlights territorial disparities that can guide prioritization of resilience strategies, early-warning systems, and evidence-based planning.
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