Deception in orbital games: simulation and dissimulation with a maneuverable decoy

Area of Science:

• Game Theory
• Orbital Mechanics
• Space Security

Background:

• Orbital games involve complex interactions between pursuers and evaders.
• Deception is a critical element in space security, encompassing both physical and cognitive strategies.
• Understanding perception manipulation is key to analyzing probabilistic decision-making in dynamic environments.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a game-theoretic framework for analyzing deception in orbital games.
• To model the impact of maneuverable decoys on pursuer-evader dynamics.
• To quantify the effectiveness of cognitive deception in enhancing evader survival probability.

Main Methods:

• A game-theoretic framework integrating perfect rationality, common knowledge, and mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium.
• A two-phase model: single-step and multi-step games with Boyd-cycles and belief updates.
• Extension of the framework to include imperfect decoys and analyze distinguishability effects.

Main Results:

• A decoy can increase an evader's survival probability from near zero to 30.8% against a 6:1 maneuverability disadvantage in geostationary orbit.
• Distinguishability of decoys significantly impacts the Nash equilibrium.
• Cognitive deception offers a tactical advantage beyond simple evasion.

Conclusions:

• Cognitive deception, particularly through decoys, is tactically valuable in space security scenarios.
• The proposed framework provides a foundation for understanding orbital deception beyond evasive maneuvers.
• Future research should focus on robust, belief-aware game design under uncertainty.