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An integrated population modeling workflow for supporting mesopredator management.

Chloé R Nater1, Stijn P Hofhuis2, Matthew Grainger1

  • 1Division for Land and Biodiversity, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Trondheim, Sør-Trøndelag, Norway.

Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America
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Summary

Integrated population models (IPMs) analyzed harvested red fox data to reveal population dynamics. Harvest levels may not reduce red fox populations due to density dependence and immigration.

Keywords:
IPMVulpes vulpescullingdemographyharvesthuntingimmigrationmortalitypopulation dynamicsred foxreproducibilitytundra

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Wildlife Management
  • Population Dynamics

Background:

  • Mesopredator expansion poses risks to biodiversity and human health globally.
  • Lethal control via harvest is a common but poorly understood mitigation strategy.
  • Data limitations hinder quantitative assessment of harvest impacts on mesopredator populations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and apply an integrated population model (IPM) workflow for analyzing mesopredator population dynamics under harvest.
  • To quantify red fox population dynamics in Arctic Norway over 20 years.
  • To identify drivers of population change and evaluate harvest impacts.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a versatile IPM workflow integrating data from >4000 harvested red foxes (age, reproduction, genetics), field observations, and literature.
  • Applied retrospective (transient Life Table Response Experiments, tLTREs) and prospective (population viability analyses, PVAs) perturbation analyses.
  • Quantified population dynamics and identified drivers of change.

Main Results:

  • Red fox populations exhibited significant year-to-year fluctuations driven by prey availability and density-dependent mortality/immigration.
  • Current harvest levels appear sufficient to prevent population increase.
  • Increased harvest levels were ineffective at reducing populations due to strong density-dependent buffering, particularly immigration.

Conclusions:

  • IPMs offer a powerful approach for studying population dynamics using harvested animal data, even without structured surveys of live animals.
  • Harvested animals provide valuable data for cost-effective population analyses.
  • The developed workflow is reproducible, adaptable for other species, and aids in informing management strategies to mitigate biodiversity loss.