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Migration00:53

Migration

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Migration is long-range, seasonal movement from one region or habitat to another. This common strategy, carried out by many different organisms around the world, is an adaptive response that typically corresponds to changes in an organism’s environment, like resource availability or climate. Migrations can involve huge groups of thousands of animals as well as single individuals traveling alone and can range from thousands of kilometers to just a few hundred meters.
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Global Risk Assessment of the Invasive Insect Thaumatotibia leucotreta to Citrus Based on its Potential Distribution.

Zhihao Fan1,2, Yu Zhang1,3, Shanqing Yi1,3

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Summary

The false-codling moth (FCM) threatens global citrus crops. Climate change may reduce its habitat, but significant overlap with citrus regions necessitates enhanced pest management and quarantine measures.

Keywords:
Biological invasionCitrusFalse codling mothHabitat suitabilityMaxEnt

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Area of Science:

  • Agricultural Entomology
  • Climate Change Impact Assessment
  • Biogeographical Modeling

Background:

  • The false-codling moth (FCM), *Thaumatotibia leucotreta*, is a major quarantine pest causing economic losses in southern African citrus.
  • International trade and climate change facilitate the spread of FCM beyond its native range, posing a threat to global agriculture.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To predict suitable habitats for FCM under current and future climate scenarios using the MaxEnt model.
  • To identify key bioclimatic variables influencing FCM distribution.
  • To assess the overlap between FCM habitats and global citrus cultivation areas.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized 141 global occurrence data points and 19 bioclimatic variables for MaxEnt modeling.
  • Predicted FCM suitable habitats under near-current and future climate scenarios (e.g., SSP5-8.5 by the 2070s).
  • Analyzed key bioclimatic drivers: isothermality (bio3), warmest month temperature (bio5), driest quarter temperature (bio9), and annual precipitation (bio12).

Main Results:

  • MaxEnt model demonstrated excellent performance (AUC = 0.965).
  • Current suitable habitat estimated at 2575.03 × 10⁴ km², with high suitability in Central/South America, Europe, Africa, and Asia.
  • Future projections indicate habitat contraction, particularly under SSP5-8.5 (11.23% by 2070s).
  • Significant overlap (714.02 × 10⁴ km²) exists between FCM habitats and citrus cultivation, with hotspots in Africa.

Conclusions:

  • FCM poses a significant risk to global citrus production due to extensive habitat overlap.
  • Climate change may alter FCM distribution, but current and projected overlaps necessitate urgent action.
  • Enhanced quarantine measures and integrated pest management are crucial to prevent global spread and establishment.