How do social network models compare to all-to-all models for forecasting tuberculosis epidemics? A mathematical
Masabho P Milali1, Hae-Young Kim1, George F Corliss2
1Department of Population Health, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, New York, United States of America.
Plos One
|April 1, 2026
Summary
Social network structure significantly impacts tuberculosis (TB) intervention effectiveness. Network models show reduced impact for TB control strategies compared to traditional models, highlighting the need for network sensitivity in planning.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Public Health Interventions
Background:
- Current tuberculosis (TB) mathematical models often assume homogeneous population mixing.
- This study investigates the impact of social network structure on TB intervention projections.
- A scale-free social network model (Barabási-Albert) is compared to an all-to-all compartmental model.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare projected tuberculosis intervention impacts using a social network model versus an all-to-all mixing model.
- To assess how social network structure influences the effectiveness of vaccination and treatment strategies for TB control.
Main Methods:
- Transmission parameters were calibrated for similar baseline trends in both models.
- Interventions included vaccination (30-70% coverage, 80-95% efficacy) and treatment (20-50% recovery increase).
- Outcomes were evaluated 300 days post-intervention after a 400-day model burn-in period.
Main Results:
- The network model projected smaller reductions in active TB with increasing vaccine efficacy compared to the all-to-all model.
- Treatment improvements also showed lower projected reductions in the network model at moderate efficacy.
- Findings remained consistent across various baseline prevalence scenarios.
Conclusions:
- Incorporating social network structure can attenuate projected impacts of suboptimal TB interventions.
- TB control forecasts and target-setting must consider sensitivity to social network topology.
- Understanding network structure is crucial for optimizing public health strategies against tuberculosis.
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