Fertility behaviour under geopolitical uncertainty: Evidence from Ukraine

This study investigates how a surge in geopolitical uncertainty in a smaller state, arising from aggression by a larger power, influences fertility behaviour within the affected state. Focusing on Ukraine during the post-Crimean crisis period, the analysis constructs counterfactual scenarios using the Synthetic Control Method and the Synthetic Difference-in-Differences Method. The results show that geopolitical uncertainty significantly reduces fertility rates, suggesting that households exhibit precautionary behaviour in their fertility decisions in response to such uncertainty. This finding is robust across a series of robustness and sensitivity tests. Thus, this study introduces a novel variable to the fertility behaviour literature and demonstrates that, in a low-fertility regime, geopolitical uncertainty is a crucial predictor of fertility behaviour.