Age-specific melanoma incidence trends in Canada

Melanoma is a rapidly increasing cancer in Canada, largely due to ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure. The objective of this study was to examine age- and sex-specific melanoma incident trends in Canada to determine if public health efforts related to UVR exposure are having an impact on melanoma incidence.

Data on melanoma incidence was obtained from the Canadian Cancer Registry (1992-2022). Annual percent changes in age-specific incidence rates were analyzed with segmented regression. Birth cohort effects were estimated with age-period-cohort models and reported as cohort incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with respect to the 1953-57 cohort.

From 1992-2022, the incidence of melanoma has steadily increased for females over 40 and males over 50 with larger increases for older age groups. In contrast, melanoma rates have been decreasing for females under 30 and males under 40. Compared to the baby boom generation, recent birth cohorts (1998-2007 for males and 1993-2007 for females) have a lower incidence of melanoma.

While melanoma rates continue to increase for older adults, incidence among younger Canadians is declining. These results may indicate that public health efforts are having an impact on melanoma prevention for recent birth cohorts.