Incorporating ecological realism into biological control risk assessment

Importation (= classical) biological control was historically celebrated for dramatic successes, but faced criticism over nontarget effects, prompting a shift toward risk assessment in the 1990s. Some recent risk assessment approaches integrate ecological realism, recognizing that physiological host ranges of candidate species determined under laboratory conditions often overestimate real-world risks. Incorporating dispersal data, probabilities of encounter, and ecological refuges can refine predictions of nontarget impacts. In addition, benefit-risk analysis frameworks have emerged, quantifying both the conservation benefits of pest suppression and potential nontarget harms using common metrics such as effects on native biodiversity. These developments can lead to better-informed decisions for biological control introductions. Future directions emphasize integrating phylogenetic and ecological tools to predict host specificity, expanding benefit-risk frameworks to include economic and human-health dimensions, and applying these principles to emerging pest management technologies to support evidence-based biological control practices. Persuading regulatory organizations to embrace these recommendations will be critical to realizing their full potential.