Who joins voluntary conservation programs? Socioenvironmental predictors of participation in tropical working...

Voluntary conservation programs are increasingly used to align rural development with ecosystem protection within working landscapes, yet their effectiveness depends on the willingness and capacity of landowners to participate. To explore factors that influence participation, we investigated socioenvironmental characteristics of rural properties in a conservation program in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Using Bayesian modeling across 18 717 properties, we found participants concentrated in marginal agricultural lands and in properties with large extents of riparian areas, suggesting a pattern of self-selection into program participation. Using participation probabilities, we identified ~ 5000 additional properties to join future conservation programs, in the same area. These findings suggest that incentive-based policies may reward voluntary conservation while successfully engaging landowners in marginal lands. Voluntary conservation schemes tend to attract landowners predisposed to conservation, while struggling to engage those facing higher opportunity costs. Achieving transformative outcomes will require incentive structures that better align economic competitiveness with ecological priorities.