Can large-scale climate patterns predict nitrate export mechanisms from agricultural land?
S J Granger1, H R Upadhayay1, A Mead1
1Rothamsted Research, North Wyke, Okehampton, Devon, EX20 2SB, UK.
Chemosphere
|April 5, 2026
Summary
Large-scale atmospheric systems influence nitrate loss from agricultural lands. The Western European summer-autumn Oscillation Index (WEPAi) can predict nitrate export from grassland catchments, especially when considering soil moisture.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Hydrology
- Agricultural Science
Background:
- Nitrate losses to water bodies are linked to intensive agriculture and rainfall.
- Understanding drivers of nitrate mobilization is crucial for water quality management.
- Western European weather is significantly influenced by North Atlantic atmospheric systems.
Purpose of the Study:
- To explore the link between large-scale atmospheric systems and temporal changes in water quality.
- To investigate the drivers of nitrate transfers from grassland catchments.
- To assess the predictive power of climate indices on nitrate export.
Main Methods:
- Utilized 12 years of high-frequency nitrate and discharge data from 5 grassland catchments.
- Calculated rainfall-driven discharge and flushing index (FI) for nitrate.
- Correlated monthly mean FI and soil moisture with large-scale climate indices (NAOi and WEPAi), considering seasonal and catchment differences.
Main Results:
- The Western European summer-autumn Oscillation Index (WEPAi) best explained monthly mean FI, with significant seasonal differences (winter vs. summer).
- A positive WEPAi correlated with a negative FI in both seasons, with greater variation in summer.
- Nitrate export was predictable using WEPAi, with slightly improved accuracy using local soil moisture data.
Conclusions:
- Large-scale atmospheric patterns, particularly WEPAi, are significant drivers of nitrate export from grassland catchments.
- Seasonal variations in soil moisture influence the relationship between WEPAi and nitrate flushing.
- WEPAi offers a valuable tool for predicting nitrate export, aiding in water quality management strategies.
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