Academic and Demographic Predictors of Physician Assistant National Certifying Examination Achievement in Physician...

Identifying predictors of success on the Physician Assistant National Certifying Examination (PANCE) is critical for physician assistant (PA) programs aiming to improve student outcomes. While preadmission metrics are often emphasized, the influence of academic performance during the PA program remains a focus of ongoing investigation. This study examines the relative contributions of preadmission variables, selected demographic factors, and didactic and clinical academic performance in predicting PANCE outcomes.

This is a retrospective cohort study of 3 cohorts of PA students (2022-2024), assessing preadmission metrics and performance during the didactic phase and clinical year for associations with PANCE scores using linear regression, Mann-Whitney U, and Kruskal-Wallis tests, with significance set at P < .05.

No statistically significant associations were observed between PANCE scores and preadmission factors, including prematriculation course grades, undergraduate cumulative and science GPAs, patient care hours, or demographic variables such as gender, age, and geographic background. In contrast, didactic and clinical year GPAs, as well as performance on summative I and II exams and the end of curriculum exams, were all strongly and positively correlated with PANCE outcomes ( P < .0001).

The findings suggest that both the didactic and clinical phases, along with summative assessments, are the strongest predictors of first-time PANCE success. These results underscore the importance of a rigorous curriculum and comprehensive internal assessments to prepare students for certification. Ongoing academic monitoring helps PA programs proactively identify and support students at risk of underperformance on the PANCE.