Vaccine spending and economic recovery: OECD panel data analysis

Area of Science:

• Public Health Economics
• Macroeconomic Policy
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Severe health shocks can destabilize high-income economies.
• Effective economic recovery strategies are crucial post-crisis.
• The role of public health interventions in economic normalization requires investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the impact of public spending on vaccination programs on macroeconomic normalization.
• To determine if vaccination expenditure influences economic recovery in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) economies.
• To identify key drivers of economic normalization following severe health shocks.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of an unbalanced OECD panel dataset.
• Utilized a fixed-effects econometric specification.
• Incorporated structural controls: inflation, unemployment, trade openness, and general health expenditure.

Main Results:

• Vaccine expenditure showed no statistically significant independent effect on economic recovery.
• Coefficients for vaccine expenditure were positive but economically modest.
• Macroeconomic fundamentals demonstrated stronger, more consistent associations with recovery.

Conclusions:

• Vaccination is a necessary but insufficient element of economic recovery.
• Economic influence of vaccination is mediated by system-level efficiency, not direct fiscal input.
• Integrated policy frameworks combining public health and economic measures are essential.