Vaccine spending and economic recovery: OECD panel data analysis

This study investigates whether public spending on vaccination programmes contributes to macroeconomic normalization following severe health shocks in high-income Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) economies.

An unbalanced OECD panel dataset was analysed using a fixed-effects specification that incorporates structural controls including inflation, unemployment, trade openness, and general health expenditure.

The empirical results indicate that vaccine expenditure does not exert a statistically significant independent effect on economic recovery, although the coefficients display a positive but economically modest direction. Conversely, several macroeconomic fundamentals demonstrate stronger and more consistent associations with recovery dynamics.

Vaccination functions as a necessary but insufficient component of recovery strategies, with its economic influence mediated through system-level efficiency rather than direct fiscal input. Integrated policy frameworks that combine public health interventions with structural economic measures are required.