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Steps in Outbreak Investigation01:18

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In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
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Forecasting future trends in canine leishmaniasis through dynamic modeling.

Xènia Fonseca I Llopis1, Nerea Lázaro Hernandez1, Pau Fonseca I Casas1

  • 1Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya - BarcelonaTech, Barcelona, Spain.

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|April 7, 2026
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Canine leishmaniasis in Tarragona has remained stable over four decades. Global warming simulations predict a significant dog population decrease due to increased disease incidence.

Keywords:
Canine leishmaniasisLeishmaniaclimate changedigital twinsandflies

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Area of Science:

  • Veterinary Epidemiology
  • Parasitology
  • Climate Change Impact Studies

Background:

  • Canine leishmaniasis (CanL) is a significant zoonotic disease transmitted by sandflies.
  • Understanding long-term CanL trends is crucial for public health and animal welfare.
  • Environmental factors, particularly temperature, influence vector-borne disease dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the temporal evolution of canine leishmaniasis in Tarragona, Spain, over 40 years.
  • To develop and validate a simulation model for forecasting CanL incidence.
  • To assess the impact of climate change on CanL dynamics.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized historical canine case records (2018-2022) and epidemiological data (1985-1994).
  • Correlated positivity trends with regional temperature records.
  • Adapted a human leishmaniasis SEIRD model into a multiseason dual-host (dogs and sandflies) system.

Main Results:

  • Canine leishmaniasis positivity showed approximate stability (4% increase) between 1985-1994 and 2018-2022.
  • The simulation model reproduced historical positivity trends.
  • Simulated global warming led to an initial increase followed by a significant decline in the dog population due to disease mortality.

Conclusions:

  • Canine leishmaniasis incidence in Tarragona has been relatively stable historically.
  • Climate change poses a significant future risk, potentially leading to substantial dog population losses.
  • The developed modeling framework is transferable for forecasting other arthropod-borne diseases.