Forecasting greenhouse gas emissions in South Asia: a time series analysis using ARIMA models (1975-2030)

Based on past data from 1975 to 2023, this paper forecasts South Asia's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through 2030 using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The forecasts indicate a sustained rise in emissions across most South Asian nations, with India experiencing the most significant absolute increase, reaching approximately 4610 MtCO₂ by 2030. Bangladesh and Pakistan are expected to experience considerable growth (308.4 and 602.3 MtCO₂, respectively). In contrast, Afghanistan's emissions are projected to remain below 30 MtCO₂ with minor fluctuations, while smaller nations such as Bhutan and the Maldives may see gradual increases, reflecting developmental pressures. This research addresses a significant deficiency in the current literature by offering a region-specific and comparative emissions analysis. Beyond forecasting, the findings offer a foundation for data-driven policy formulation, highlighting the urgent need for national and regional decarbonization strategies, sector-specific interventions, and enhanced cooperation among South Asian countries. The study underscores the importance of integrating climate action into national development planning, promoting regional technology-sharing initiatives, and strengthening adaptation efforts in vulnerable economies to meet the Paris Agreement goals and ensure sustainable development.