Provincial decarbonization in China's rural residential sector: From end-use electrification to grid decarbonization

Rural electrification is crucial for China's energy transition and rural revitalization. However, its net effect on decarbonization at the provincial level remains unclear, as the interplay between end-use electrification and power grid decarbonization is poorly quantified. To address this, we developed a bottom-up framework combining deconstructed structural decomposition (DSD) to analyze emissions from 30 provinces (2000-2022). We find that: (1) Rural residential emissions grew at 8.48% annually, driven mainly by economic growth. (2) Electrification contributed significantly to decarbonization, cumulatively reducing emissions by 250.66 MtCO₂. (3) Cumulative decarbonization efficiency was highest in Northeast China (4.51%), while decarbonization efficiency in East China was relatively low (2.97%). This disparity arises because the Northeast gained from substituting high-carbon fuels, while in East China, end-use efficiency gains were offset by rising electricity demand from a still carbon-intensive grid. Therefore, deep decarbonization demands a dual-track strategy. Grid decarbonization must be treated as the foundational priority. Highly electrified provinces should accelerate the shift toward cleaner, renewable-based power grids. Meanwhile, less electrified regions need to prioritize replacing fossil fuels in rural households. We offer a provincial diagnostic toolkit to assist in designing targeted, regionally tailored energy policies.