Toward a just and robust energy transition in Indonesia: A multi-scale, multi-dimensional assessment of coal...

The implementation of a coal moratorium in Indonesia represents a critical policy instrument for achieving the national commitment to Net-Zero Emissions (NZE) by 2060. However, the feasibility and equity implications of such a policy remain insufficiently understood, particularly in relation to Indonesia's spatial heterogeneity, institutional diversity, and structural dependence on coal-based energy systems. Existing studies have predominantly relied on techno-economic modeling frameworks that overlook subnational disparities, dynamic uncertainties, and political-institutional constraints shaping energy transitions. This study addresses these gaps by developing a mixed-methods analytical framework that integrates spatially disaggregated energy system modeling using the Balmorel model, stochastic sensitivity analysis, and political economy diagnostics grounded in the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) framework. Scenario simulations evaluate five alternative transition pathways, including a regionally phased coal moratorium combined with demand-side management (DSM) strategies. The results indicate a substantial redistribution of renewable energy capacity toward Sumatra and Eastern Indonesia under NZE scenarios, accompanied by significant emission reductions reaching up to 92% by 2050. While transition costs increase in the short term, early investments in solar, wind, and energy storage significantly mitigate long-term system costs. Stochastic sensitivity analysis further demonstrates that robust and cost-effective decarbonization pathways remain highly sensitive to capital expenditure dynamics and institutional readiness, particularly in provinces with limited grid infrastructure and investment capacity. Policy implications highlight the importance of a just and feasible energy transition framework supported by fiscal incentives for coal-dependent regions, revenue recycling mechanisms from carbon taxation, and multilevel governance reforms. Institutional restructuring-including the functional unbundling of PLN and the expansion of public-private partnership (PPP) investment schemes-is also identified as a critical enabler. The findings demonstrate that integrating spatial and institutional dimensions into energy system modeling is essential for designing equitable and resilient decarbonization pathways in decentralized emerging economies.