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Rainfall events and mortality in Brazil.

Weeberb J Requia1, Erick Frederico Kill2, Salil V Deo3

  • 1Center for Environment and Public Health Studies, School of Public Policy and Government, Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Brasília, Distrito Federal, Brazil. weeberb.requia@fgv.br.

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|April 8, 2026
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Extreme rainfall impacts on mortality in Brazil vary significantly by state. While national data show no overall effect, local health risks from flooding and contamination differ, requiring tailored adaptation strategies.

Keywords:
CardiovascularExtreme rainfallInfectious diseasesMortalityRespiratory

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental epidemiology
  • Climate change adaptation
  • Public health policy

Background:

  • Extreme rainfall events are intensifying due to climate change.
  • Short-term health impacts of extreme rainfall can be harmful (e.g., flooding) or protective (e.g., pollution washout).
  • Robust, national-scale evidence on rainfall-mortality links is lacking for Brazil.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the daily mortality impacts of extreme rainfall across all Brazilian municipalities.
  • To investigate all-cause, cardiovascular, respiratory, and infectious mortality outcomes.
  • To provide evidence for developing context-specific public health interventions.

Main Methods:

  • Hydrologically defined extreme rainfall using regional frequency analysis.
  • State-level quasi-Poisson models with distributed-lag nonlinear terms for rainfall and temperature.
  • Multivariate random-effects meta-analysis to pool national exposure-response coefficients.

Main Results:

  • Substantial heterogeneity in rainfall-mortality associations was observed across Brazilian states.
  • Some states exhibited positive associations (e.g., flooding, contamination), while others showed protective or null effects (e.g., pollution washout).
  • National pooled analyses did not reveal statistically significant mortality effects across the exposure range.

Conclusions:

  • Short-term mortality responses to extreme rainfall are highly context-dependent in Brazil.
  • National aggregated data obscure significant local vulnerabilities and risks.
  • State-tailored adaptation strategies are crucial, addressing drainage, sanitation, vector control, healthcare access, and air quality.