Land use dominate the evolution of ecosystem services in the Huaihe River Eco-Economic Belt, China

The Huaihe River Eco-Economic Belt, located in the north-south transition zone of China, is a pivotal component of the national economic system. Quantitative analysis of the evolution and driving mechanisms of ecosystem services is essential for achieving regional sustainable development. Using land-use data from 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, we employed the InVEST model and the equivalent factor method to simulate variations in five ecosystem services: carbon sequestration, habitat quality, water yield, food‑material supply, and potential soil erosion. Hierarchical partitioning and stepwise regression were applied to reveal the impacts of land‑use proportions on ecosystem services. The results show that (1) carbon sequestration, habitat quality, and food‑material supply declined, while potential soil erosion and water yield increased; (2) synergistic relationships were observed among the five ecosystem services, with strong synergies between habitat quality and carbon sequestration, and between water yield and food‑material supply; (3) forest, urban and rural, and dry land proportions were the most significant factors affecting carbon sequestration and habitat quality. Forest proportion explained more than 40% of the variation, while urban and rural, dry land accounted for 30% and 17%, respectively. Land‑use proportions explained about 50% of the variation in potential soil erosion and water yield. For food‑material supply, paddy field proportion explained 37% of the variation, with dry land, urban-rural land, and forest each contributing about 15%. These findings provide valuable insights for land‑use planning and management in the Huaihe Eco‑economic Belt.