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Updated: Apr 11, 2026

Use of Principal Components for Scaling Up Topographic Models to Map Soil Redistribution and Soil Organic Carbon
Published on: October 16, 2018
Modeling cropland conversion for conservation prioritization across the United States
Ciara Hovis1, Jeffery S Evans2,3, Clare Kazanski4
1The Nature Conservancy, North America Region Science, Boulder, CO, USA. ciara.hovis@tnc.org.
Abstract:
Understanding the spatial pattern of cropping is crucial for proactive conservation efforts in vulnerable ecosystems. This paper presents a spatially explicit probability layer for the conterminous United States which identifies areas of high likelihood of future cropping (i.e., probability of being tilled) based on key geophysical measures of climate, geomorphology, and soil. This dataset identifies areas with a high propensity for cultivation, offering a critical baseline for prioritizing conservation strategies in remaining natural ecosystems at risk of conversion. Derived using underlying geophysical processes, this spatially explicit output can be combined with socio-economic data for more nuanced and regionally specific conservation planning. This resource provides a valuable tool for researchers, land managers, and policymakers seeking to mitigate the impacts of cropping on these ecosystems.
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