Bayesian Model Selection to Investigate Meaningful Spatial Scales

Ecologists and other statistical practitioners with access to high-resolution spatial data often lack guidance on best approaches for discerning meaningful spatial scales for environmental covariates which is necessary when spatial factors influence environmental processes. Recently developed methods have attempted to automate investigating spatial scales for covariates by evaluating models for which potential explanatory variables are derived from circular extents of increasing size centered at survey locations. However, these methods make a strong assumption on the inclusion of the covariate and do not help discern whether a covariate should be included in the model. We present an approach that utilizes researcher guidance to create informative priors on the model space that, along with parallelizable Reversible Jump Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques, enables efficient estimation of posterior model probabilities to assist with the choice of meaningful spatial scales for environmental covariates.