A machine-learning-based tool for stroke risk prediction in blunt cerebrovascular injury: development and preliminary
Victoria Wagner1, Joshua D Preston2, Alejandro De Leon Castro3,4
1Department of Surgery, UTHealth Houston - McGovern School of Medicine, 6431 Fannin Street, MSB 4.264, Houston, TX, 77030, USA. victoria.e.wagner@uth.tmc.edu.
Purpose:
Stroke risk correlates with the Biffl grading system in blunt cerebrovascular injury (BCVI). Although anti-thrombotic therapy is the mainstay of stroke prevention, no point-of-care clinical decision-support tool exists to guide timing for therapy. We sought to develop an interactive online calculator that incorporates patient-specific demographic and injury characteristics to estimate stroke risk and risk reduction with anti-thrombotic (AT) administration.
Methods:
Data from BCVI patients (n = 1,197) at a Level I Trauma Center were retrospectively collected. Six machine learning methods were employed to predict stroke risk with and without AT therapy. Class imbalance was addressed using downsampling and/or class weighting. Model performance was assessed using 10-fold cross-validation. The model was implemented as an R-based Shiny online application.
Results:
Stroke rate among the population was 4%, and the strongest predictors for stroke were the greatest Biffl grade of carotid (aOR [95%CI] = 2.02 [1.62-2.53]) and vertebral injuries (1.44 [1.18-1.77]). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) model outperformed all others, achieving 66% [33%-100%] sensitivity and 74% [62%-82%] specificity for stroke prediction, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.79 [0.57-0.95]. This model was integrated into an interactive online tool ( https://grady-bcvi-calc.shinyapps.io/calculator/ ), where patient demographic and injury characteristics can be used to compute baseline stroke risk and estimate stroke risk with AT.
Conclusion:
We developed and evaluated a preliminary predictive model for personalized stroke risk assessment in patients with BCVI using key risk factors. The integration of patient-specific risk-benefit assessments into clinical decision-making could optimize and reduce variability in AT therapy. External validation is warranted to prepare this tool for broad clinical applicability.
