Novel shortcut estimation method for economics of industrial amino-acid process

Industrial biotechnology enables both sustainability and economic feasibility but faces petrochemical-like challenges, such as high dependency on material costs, price volatility, and supply chain vulnerabilities. Amino acid industry can serve as a valuable tool for analyzing bioeconomy due to its large market volume and product diversity. In this study, we developed a shortcut estimation method for production cost, which is primary factor in economic analysis, for commercial amino acids using a titer, rate, and yield metrics. To ensure real-world relevance, 1064 monthly data points were collected from 12 commercial amino acid products. The shortcut heuristic model, using titer, rate, upstream yield, and downstream yield metrics, yielded precise simulation results with a mean absolute percentage error of 14.52%. As an industrial application example, commercial-scale production costs were analyzed using lab-scale fermentation data for 20 amino acids. The model was applied to select an optimal strain minimizing production costs during the 2023 global sugar price spike. It also proved effective for strain selection maximizing operating income during amino acid supply instability due to the 2021 supply chain disruptions. This model enables accurate and agile strategic decision-making, without complex process models and extensive input variables, for both academic and industrial fields.