Exploring the feasible net-zero transition pathway in China considering energy system flexibility

Area of Science:

• Energy Systems Analysis
• Environmental Economics
• Climate Change Mitigation

Background:

• The global energy transition necessitates phasing out fossil fuels, increasing reliance on variable renewable energy sources.
• This shift strains energy system flexibility, demanding innovative solutions for power balance and resource adequacy.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply a sub-annual energy-environment-economy model for China to assess feasible net-zero transition pathways.
• To co-optimize supply- and demand-side flexibility resources under high variable renewable energy and electrification scenarios.

Main Methods:

• A novel sub-annual energy-environment-economy model incorporating hourly energy demand, power dispatch, storage, and demand-side response was developed.
• The model simulates power balance dynamics and co-optimizes flexibility resources to map transition pathways.

Main Results:

• Sub-annual modeling reveals significantly tighter flexibility needs compared to traditional coarser time-slice methods.
• Results indicate steeper load ramps, increased price volatility, and higher demand for dispatchable resources like thermal power, nuclear, hydrogen, and storage.
• The cost-optimal solution without demand-side flexibility shows a >9% increase in marginal abatement costs.

Conclusions:

• Incorporating demand-side flexibility measures (e.g., load time-shifting, vehicle-to-grid) can mitigate cost increases and ensure reliable, affordable decarbonization.
• Enhanced modeling of temporal dynamics and incentive-compatible market designs are crucial for developing dispatchable resources and achieving net-zero goals.