Predictors of hope and despair: Resilience, coping indicators, and demographic characteristics - A longitudinal study

Hope and despair are often conceptualized as opposing emotional responses following adversity. While traditionally considered as mutually exclusive, contemporary theoretical frameworks and qualitative research suggest that these emotions may coexist or fluctuate over time. This study examines the relationship between hope and despair in the context of protracted war, exploring their connection with three types of resilience, negative coping factors such as distress, sense of danger, and perceived threats, as well as demographic variables, using quantitative methods. The study is a correlational research based on an internet panel sample of 745 Hebrew-speaking adults in Israel, surveyed at two time points during the ongoing war between Israel and Gaza, with data collected in December 2024 and June 2025. A range of established scales was used to assess the various variables. The findings showed that hope and despair predicted each other only in the first measurement, and, contrary to the assumption that they are opposites, both emotions increased simultaneously from the first to the second measurement. Furthermore, they were predicted by different factors: resilience, particularly societal, individual, and community resilience, predicted hope, while negative coping factors, such as distress symptoms, sense of danger, and perceived threats, predicted despair. These findings suggest that hope and despair are not merely opposites, but rather distinct emotions influenced by different underlying factors. The results underscore the need for further research on the interplay between these emotions and highlight the importance of understanding the mechanisms influencing them in extreme contexts to inform therapeutic and resilience-building interventions.