Virtual energy shortage risk to trade network in China

Local energy shortages can directly lead to economic output losses in energy-intensive sectors, known as local energy shortage risk (LESR). Additionally, the impacts of local energy shortages can propagate through supply chains, creating cascading effects that induce potential indirect economic losses in external regions and sectors, termed virtual energy shortage risk (VESR). This study quantifies the propagation of VESR across China's regional trade network from 2012 to 2017, uncovering the systemic risk posed by local energy shortages. The results show that VESR accounted for a substantial proportion (41.0-43.9%) of China's energy shortage risk (ESR, the sum of LESR and VESR) during the study period, highlighting the significance of indirect impacts. LESR and VESR exhibit notable geographic separation. For instance, Tibet experienced no LESR but is exposed to VESR. VESR exporters are concentrated in energy-intensive sectors within energy-scarce regions, such as "Metal Smelting and Pressing" in Hebei and Henan. In contrast, VESR importers are more widely distributed; sectors such as "Agriculture Services" and "Coal Mining and Dressing" in Beijing, experience VESR imports exceeding 50% of their ESR, indicating high external risk exposure. These findings highlight the need for inter-regional coordination in energy resource management and provide risk mitigation pathways for VESR importers (e.g., diversifying supply sources and strengthening energy supply technology cooperation with upstream regions).