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Understand systemic risk from mangrove ecosystem through network analysis.

Mimi Gong1,2, Ke Yu3,4, Qiang Huang3,4

  • 1Advanced Interdisciplinary Institute of Satellite Applications, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.

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|April 13, 2026
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Mangrove loss exacerbates systemic risks like extreme weather, while restoration offers benefits. Understanding mangrove dynamics is crucial for mitigating climate, socio-economic, and governance vulnerabilities.

Keywords:
Cascading effectsComplex network analysisMangrove ecosystemsMultidimensional evaluationSystemic risk

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Environmental Science
  • Network Analysis

Background:

  • Mangrove deforestation intensifies systemic risks, including extreme weather, socio-economic disruption, and governance weaknesses.
  • The interplay between mangrove dynamics (loss and restoration) and climate, socio-economic, and governance systems in mitigating systemic risk is not well understood.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To construct a novel framework, the Mangrove Multisystemic Risk Space, to analyze the complex interactions between mangrove change and systemic risks.
  • To identify key indicators and network structures that influence systemic risk mitigation through mangrove dynamics.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a network-based framework inspired by the economic concept of "product space" to link indicators across mangrove change, climate impacts, socio-economic development, and policy interventions.
  • Analyzed the resulting network structure to identify distinct clusters and significant indicators related to mangrove loss and expansion.

Main Results:

  • The Mangrove Multisystemic Risk Space exhibits a bipartite structure, separating mangrove loss (linked to emissions and climate extremes) from mangrove expansion (linked to renewables and economic growth).
  • Identified "influential" indicators (e.g., Ramsar site coverage) with high cascading potential and "complex" indicators requiring multi-dimensional improvements, highlighting systemic vulnerabilities.
  • The United States excels in complex goals, while New Zealand and Panama are hubs for influential indicators.

Conclusions:

  • Mangrove dynamics play a differentiated role in mitigating systemic risk, with distinct pathways for loss and expansion.
  • Strengthened global cooperation in mangrove conservation is essential, recognizing the unique contributions of mangrove-rich nations.
  • The study provides a novel framework for understanding and managing systemic risks associated with coastal ecosystems.