Performance of Blood-Based Indirect Scores Compared to Transient Elastography in Children with Chronic Liver Disease

Background: Chronic liver disease (CLD) in children requires long-term monitoring. Liver biopsy and transient elastography (TE) are resource-intensive methods that require specialized equipment and trained personnel. Simple indirect fibrosis scores based on routine laboratory parameters offer a potentially cost-effective alternative but have not been systematically evaluated in pediatric populations with diverse CLD etiologies. Objectives: This study aimed to assess the performance of several indirect fibrosis and cirrhosis scores in predicting significant (≥F2) and advanced (≥F3) fibrosis and cirrhosis (F4) in children with CLD using TE as a comparator. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed medical records of children with CLD evaluated at a tertiary center between January 2023 and June 2025. TE results and routine laboratory data were used to calculate fibrosis scores, including APRI, FIB-4, FibroIndex, FORNS, GPR, GUCI, King's score, and Lok's index. ROC analyses were performed to assess each score's ability to discriminate significant fibrosis, advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis. Optimal cut-offs were established using the Youden index. Results: GPR showed the strongest concordance with TE-based fibrosis classification across both fibrosis thresholds, achieving an AUROC of 0.835 for significant fibrosis and a superior 0.917 for advanced fibrosis. FibroIndex and APRI also demonstrated good discriminatory power for advanced disease. Utilizing mathematically optimized cut-offs, GPR (0.45) and APRI (0.84) achieved good negative predictive values (100% and 95%) and sensitivities (100% and 85%) for advanced fibrosis, establishing them as potentially valuable screening tools. For cirrhosis detection (F4), Lok's Index performed best (AUROC 0.854). Conclusions: In this diverse pediatric cohort, simple indirect scores-particularly GPR, APRI, and FibroIndex-demonstrated the highest concordance relative to TE findings, with negative predictive values up to 100% for GPR. This indicates that they can serve as reliable first-line screening tools when TE is unavailable. While their good negative predictive values allow for the confident exclusion of severe disease-potentially sparing many children from invasive testing-their low positive predictive values limit their role in definitive diagnosis. The systematic failure of adult-derived, age-dependent formulas in this cohort underscores the critical need for specialized pediatric biomarkers.