Incident Heart Failure Risk Following COVID-19 Recovery: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background/Objectives: While acute cardiac injury during COVID-19 is well-documented, the long-term risk of new-onset heart failure (HF) in survivors remains a critical clinical concern. This study aims to quantify the risk of new-onset heart failure during a 25 months prognostic follow-up period following recovery from SARS-CoV-2. Methods: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of nine high-quality studies (n > 400,000 survivors) in accordance with PRISMA 2020 guidelines. Databases including PubMed/MEDLINE and Scopus were searched through January 2026. A quantitative meta-analysis was performed on six studies using a random-effects model to pool adjusted hazard ratios (aHR). Results: The pooled analysis revealed a significant 35% increased risk of new-onset heart failure following COVID-19 recovery (aHR 1.35; 95% CI: 1.14-1.60; p = 0.001). Significant heterogeneity was observed (I² = 92.62%), reflecting diverse risk profiles among survivors. The risk was most pronounced in immunocompromised kidney transplant recipients (aHR 2.32) and younger adults under the age of 65 (aHR 1.53). Subclinical myocardial damage, characterized by reduced left ventricular longitudinal strain, was identified even in survivors who experienced mild initial infections. Conclusions: COVID-19 recovery serves as a significant independent risk factor for chronic heart failure, emphasizing that cardiovascular impact extends far beyond the acute phase. These findings necessitate the implementation of structured cardiovascular monitoring and biomarker screening for at least one year post-infection to address this emerging chronic disease burden.