Predicting the Potential Distribution of Aconitum carmichaelii Debeaux in China Under Climate Change Using an
Jieru Chen1,2, Wei Zhang1, Shimeng Cui1
1School of Life Science and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China.
Plants (Basel, Switzerland)
|April 14, 2026
Summary
Aconitum carmichaelii distribution is primarily influenced by soil moisture and human footprint. Climate change is projected to significantly reduce its suitable habitat, necessitating conservation strategies.
Area of Science:
- Ecological modeling
- Biogeography
- Conservation biology
Background:
- Aconitum carmichaelii is a valuable traditional Chinese medicinal herb.
- Understanding environmental factors is crucial for its sustainable use and conservation.
- Current distribution and future projections are needed to inform management strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model the current and future distribution of Aconitum carmichaelii.
- To identify key environmental drivers of its habitat.
- To provide guidance for conservation and sustainable cultivation.
Main Methods:
- An optimized MaxEnt model was developed using ENMeval.
- 185 occurrence records and 10 environmental variables were utilized.
- Predictive accuracy was assessed using the Area Under Curve (AUC).
Main Results:
- The model showed high predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.896).
- Soil moisture, human footprint, and July solar radiation were the main determinants.
- Current suitable habitat is ~8.243 × 10^5 km², mainly in Sichuan Basin.
- Significant habitat reduction is predicted under all SSP scenarios, shifting towards higher altitudes.
Conclusions:
- Environmental factors, particularly soil moisture and human impact, significantly shape Aconitum carmichaelii distribution.
- Climate change poses a substantial threat, leading to considerable habitat loss and shifts.
- Findings support targeted conservation efforts and sustainable cultivation practices for Aconitum carmichaelii.
Related Concept Videos
01:16What is Climate?
21.6K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
21.6K
01:57Adaptations that Reduce Water Loss
29.0K
Though evaporation from plant leaves drives transpiration, it also results in loss of water. Because water is critical for photosynthetic reactions and other cellular processes, evolutionary pressures on plants in different environments have driven the acquisition of adaptations that reduce water loss.
29.0K
02:45Responses to Heat and Cold Stress
15.8K
Every organism has an optimum temperature range within which healthy growth and physiological functioning can occur. At the ends of this range, there will be a minimum and maximum temperature that interrupt biological processes.
15.8K
01:50Global Climate Change
29.9K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
29.9K
01:20Maxwell-Boltzmann Distribution: Problem Solving
3.2K
Individual molecules in a gas move in random directions, but a gas containing numerous molecules has a predictable distribution of molecular speeds, which is known as the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution, f(v).
This distribution function f(v) is defined by saying that the expected number N (v1,v2) of particles with speeds between v1 and v2 is given by
This distribution function f(v) is defined by saying that the expected number N (v1,v2) of particles with speeds between v1 and v2 is given by
3.2K
02:41Responses to Drought and Flooding
12.5K
Water plays a significant role in the life cycle of plants. However, insufficient or excess of water can be detrimental and pose a serious threat to plants.
12.5K