The Dual Burden: Long-Term Impact of COVID-19 on Tuberculosis Incidence - Presentation and Outcomes

Tuberculosis (TB), caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis, remains a major public health concern globally ranking as the second leading infectious disease and the 13th leading cause of death worldwide. The global healthcare systems have experienced unprecedented challenges in recent years due to COVID-19 pandemic causing widespread disruptions. Delaying TB diagnosis and treatment led to lower reported incidence but could increase mortality, hindering efforts to eradicate TB. Although a few studies have focused on COVID-19 and TB cases to date, most of them are case reports. Since it is unclear whether patients with COVID-TB co-infection have a worse prognosis or more likely to develop severe disease, we believed that doing this study was a necessity. The present systematic review investigates the long-term effects of COVID-19 on TB incidence, reporting follow-up and treatment outcomes.

The present study aimed to explore the long-term impact of COVID-19 on TB incidence, presentation and outcome.

We conducted our systematic review following PRISMA (Preferred reporting in systematic reviews and meta-analysis) guidelines. We performed a comprehensive literature search of EMBASE, PubMed, Scopus, The Lancet, Web of Science and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. The search items included "Corona virus disease 19", "impact of COVID-19", "SARS-CoV-2", "Tuberculosis", "TB and COVID-19 co-infection", "comorbidities", "prognosis", "incidence", "outcomes" and "risk factors" for articles published between the 1st of January 2020 and the 31st of June 2024. Searches were limited to English language only. We included articles with primary outcomes including studies which reported TB incidence or notification rates, clinical presentation, treatment interruption or outcomes of TB due to COVID-19 and TB-COVID-19 co-infection. Cohort studies, case-control studies, cross-sectional studies and surveillance or registry-based studies were included.

Information regarding COVID-19 and TB was collected from the databases, and out of 1973 articles, 41 articles were included. COVID-19 has had a negative impact on TB control programs leading to decrease in reporting of TB cases. As per the global tuberculosis report by WHO 2025, there has been approximately one-third reduction in incidence rates with TB case notifications declining by 21% of TB cases notification in 2020 compared to 2019. The reports indicated that the number of people diagnosed with TB was 7.5 million in 2022 above the baseline of 7.1 million in 2019 and 5.8 million in 2020.

COVID-19 has affected TB diagnosis and control, with a significant decline in TB case notifications leaving many undiagnosed cases, thereby reversing years of progress in TB control. The high-TB burden countries like India should tackle the havoc caused by the COVID-19 pandemic by addressing the needs of the poor and having a concrete agenda and perpetual TB strategy to reach the target by 2030.