Assessing the Potential for Agroforestry in Pokhara, Nepal: An Investigation of the Decline of Agricultural Land Use...

An agroforestry program is often considered an ameliorative option for land utilization, agricultural production, and environmental sustainability. However, land suitability for agroforestry is not always readily known to farmers and local policy planners. Taking the case of Pokhara Metropolitan City in the mid-hills of Nepal, this paper analyzes agricultural land conversion over the last three decades and identifies agroforestry suitability areas within the available agricultural land. Land conversion and urban expansion were examined using temporal Landsat imagery and population census data. Furthermore, agroforestry suitability analysis was performed using a geospatial multi-criteria approach incorporating soil, climate, and topographic information. The study showes that during the last three decades, 11% of agricultural land was converted to built-up areas, mainly in urban sites and 23% transitioned to forest cover in rural hills, indicating a decline in agricultural land use linked to rural to urban migration and associated land-use dynamics. Population and household numbers were both were found to be positively correlated (p < 0.01) with the conversion of agriculture land to urban areas and negatively correlated with the conversion of agriculture land to forest between 1990 and 2021. The study estimates that more than half (54.3%) of the available agricultural land is highly suitable for promoting agroforestry whereas the rest (45.7%) is moderately suitable. These findings highlight a high potential for agroforestry in the Pokhara Metropolitan area, indicating significant opportunity for implementing diverse agroforestry practices within and around the city. Appropriate agroforestry intervension can enhance ecosystem services, mitigate environmental degradation, and support food security and urban green development as a nature-based solution in rapidly urbanizing landscapes.