Modelling the impact of dominant transport pathways on Antarctic Krill fishing activity in the Southern Ocean

Antarctic krill (Euphasia superba) are a key component in the Southern Ocean ecosystem, especially in the Atlantic sector, where the majority of the population is concentrated. The Norwegian commercial krill fishery exclusively targets three subareas in the Antarctic: the western Antarctic Peninsula, and the northern shelves of both the South Orkney Islands and South Georgia. Given it's reliance on oceanic transport from other regions and the potential impact of rising sea temperatures on the northern habitat, the South Georgian krill population is particularly sensitive to altering environmental conditions. The relative distance from the peninsular regions to South Georgia means that choosing to trawl in this region implies a higher risk, which is why it is exclusively targeted in winter when extensive sea-ice makes peninsular regions unsafe and inaccessible to commercial fishery operations. In this article, we show that relative to operations at South Orkney and the Antarctic Pensinsula, average catches at South Georgia have been lower with higher variability over the past 15 years. Using a Lagrangian modelling approach, we illustrate that variability in advection from source regions in the Antarctic Peninsula are correlated with proceeding catch values at South Georgia. This was not the case for source release sites at the South Orkney Islands. The dominant transport pathways for krill were strongly determined by position of regional fronts and the source sites of recruits to South Georgia were related to the position of fronts at both the Antarctic Peninsula and South Orkney Islands. This study highlights the importance of advective patterns on the variability in krill fishing activity and supports the hypothesis that South Georgia is a sink region for krill in the Southern Ocean while the western Antarctic Peninsula is a central source site.