Predicting post-stroke functional outcome using explainable machine learning and integrated data

Functional outcome after acute ischemic stroke (AIS) varies widely, and existing prognostic scores may not capture complex relationships. We evaluated a diverse set of clinical characteristics and blood biomarkers with multiple machine learning models to predict 3-month functional outcome after AIS, and used explainable artificial intelligence to identify key drivers of performance. Models were trained on 506 patients aged 18-69 years with AIS enrolled at four stroke units in western Sweden. We compared extreme gradient boosting, multilayer perceptron (MLP), and L1- and L2-regularized logistic regression. Feature importance was assessed with Shapley additive global explanations. Of the 506 patients, 105 had an unfavorable outcome (modified Rankin Scale score > 2). All models showed high area under the curve (AUROC, 0.900-0.906). The MLP achieved the highest precision-recall performance (AUPRC, 0.773 ± 0.080) and sensitivity (0.655 ± 0.096), though with lower specificity (0.920 ± 0.035). Stroke severity (NIH Stroke Scale score) was the dominant predictor across models. Among biomarkers, brain-derived tau (BD-tau) was most informative, followed by inflammation-related plasma proteins. In conclusion, machine learning accurately predicted functional outcome after AIS. BD-tau and inflammation-related proteins contributed predictive information above stroke severity, suggesting a potential for blood biomarkers to enhance individualized prognostication after AIS.