Obesity-driven thyroid cancer burden in middle-aged and older populations: temporal trends and projected trajectories...

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Oncology

Background:

• Elevated body mass index (BMI) is a key risk factor for thyroid cancer morbidity and mortality in individuals aged 40 and older.
• The specific impact of high BMI on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality in aging populations requires further investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To comprehensively assess the global burden of thyroid cancer attributed to high BMI.
• To analyze past epidemiological trends and demographic variations.
• To project future disease burden trajectories.

Main Methods:

• Utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study.
• Analyzed mortality, DALYs, years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) from 1990 to 2021.
• Employed linear regression, cluster analysis, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), and exponential smoothing models for trend analysis and projections.

Main Results:

• In 2021, high BMI was linked to 5,255 thyroid cancer deaths and 144,955 DALYs.
• Women and individuals in low-middle Socio-demographic Index regions represent high-risk subgroups.
• Projected increases in mortality and disease burden are anticipated through 2050.

Conclusions:

• Significant geographical disparities exist in the thyroid cancer burden across GBD regions.
• Interventions should prioritize high-risk demographic groups and geographical areas.
• Addressing high BMI is crucial for mitigating the growing global burden of thyroid cancer.