Value of TERT promoter mutations for early outcomes in papillary thyroid cancer

Telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) promoter mutations are associated with aggressive clinicopathological features of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). However, their independent prognostic value remains unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic significance of TERT promoter mutations (TPMs) in predicting early treatment outcomes and event-free survival (EFS) in patients with PTC. We retrospectively analyzed a prospective cohort; patients underwent surgery at a single tertiary referral center between 2019 and 2022. Patients underwent thyroidectomy, selective postoperative radioactive iodine ablation, and levothyroxine suppression therapy. Propensity score matching (PSM, 1:1) was applied to adjust for baseline clinicopathological differences. Of 10,642 patients with available molecular data, 115 (1.1%) harbored TPMs. After PSM, 90 matched pairs of patients with TERT-wild-type and TERT-mutant tumors were analyzed. Early treatment responses at 1 and 2 years post-treatment and EFS were evaluated. Early treatment responses did not differ significantly between groups at 1 year (P = 0.212) and 2 years (P = 0.571). However, patients with TERT-mutant tumors had fewer excellent responses and higher rates of structural incomplete response. During follow-up, the TERT-mutant group experienced more recurrences and one disease-specific death. Cumulative EFS was significantly poorer in the TERT-mutant group than in the TERT-wild-type group (P = 0.022). Despite their low prevalence, TPMs were independently associated with adverse oncological outcomes, including higher rates of recurrence and mortality. TPMs may serve as valuable prognostic markers for early risk stratification in PTC.