Reporting Horizon Scanning Studies: Prototype Development Study

Horizon scanning identifies weak signals of innovation to anticipate future developments, providing strategic value for health care decision-making. Unlike evidence synthesis, it addresses emerging and uncertain areas but lacks standardized reporting guidance, limiting transparency, consistency, and impact. Inconsistent terminology and poorly described methods hinder comparability and uptake of findings.

This study aimed to develop a prototype reporting checklist and glossary to support structured, transparent, and reproducible reporting of horizon scanning methods in health care innovation.

A multidisciplinary working group of horizon scanning, evidence synthesis, and information specialists was convened at the National Institute for Health and Care Research Innovation Observatory, the UK national horizon scanning center, in May 2024. Using the PRISMA-ScR (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews) checklist as a framework, 4 workshops were held to adapt relevant reporting items and build a prototype checklist. Internal validation was conducted on 17 eligible Innovation Observatory reports (2017-2024), with scoring to assess item coverage. Items were then refined, classified as mandatory or optional, and finalized through consensus.

Of 46 outputs screened, 17 (37%) met the inclusion criteria. In total, 42.9% (15/35) of the checklist items achieved 50% or more coverage; 57.1% (20/35) scored less than 50%. The final 35-item checklist (n=31, 88.6% single items and n=4, 11.4% multipart items) includes 28 (80%) mandatory and 7 (20%) optional items. Four novel components were introduced: interest holder description; horizon, innovation, population, data source, and interest holder scope framework; technology characteristics; and integration of the political, economic, social, technological, legal, environmental, and demographic factors framework.

This is the first checklist to standardize reporting in health technology horizon scanning. While this checklist prototype has been developed internally, external validation involving multidisciplinary experts via a Delphi process and a scoping review is planned. Its adoption can enhance transparency, reproducibility, and strategic impact, strengthening this methodological field.