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Bayes factor hypothesis testing in meta-analyses: Practical advantages and methodological considerations
Joris Mulder1, Robbie C M van Aert2
1Department of Methodology and Statistics, https://ror.org/04b8v1s79Tilburg University, Tilburg School of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Netherlands.
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Bayesian hypothesis testing via Bayes factors offers a principled alternative to classical p-value methods in meta-analysis, particularly suited to its cumulative and sequential nature. Unlike p-values, Bayes factors allow for quantifying support both for and against the existence of an effect, facilitate ongoing evidence monitoring, and maintain coherent long-run behavior as additional studies are incorporated. Recent theoretical developments further show how Bayes factors can flexibly control Type I error rates through connections to e-value theory. Despite these advantages, their use remains limited in the meta-analytic literature. This article provides a critical overview of their theoretical properties, methodological considerations-such as prior sensitivity-and practical advantages for evidence synthesis. Two illustrative applications are provided: one on statistical learning in individuals with language impairments, and another on seroma incidence following post-operative exercise in breast cancer patients. New tools supporting these methods are available in the open-source R package BFpack.
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