Estimating the Number of People Eating Biofortified Foods On-Farm and from Markets: a Detailed Methodology and Tool

Biofortification is a cost-effective and scalable approach to reducing micronutrient deficiencies. Currently, there are scant data detailing the number (reach) and proportion (coverage) of individuals consuming biofortified foods, which is a key limitation for policymakers.

This study aimed to develop a method to estimate the reach and coverage of biofortified foods using primary and secondary data sources.

We used data from 2023 to estimate the reach and coverage of zinc biofortified rice in Bangladesh and wheat in Pakistan, and vitamin A maize and cassava in Nigeria. Our calculation is divided into 5 phases: 1) seed availability, 2) agricultural production, 3) on-farm consumption, 4) off-farm consumption, and 5) overall national level reach and coverage. Phase 4 includes 2 consumption scenarios: full replacement and half replacement, where biofortified foods, respectively, account for 100% or 50% of the food crop per capita consumption.

In 2023, ∼13-16 million people (8%-9% of the population) consumed biofortified rice in Bangladesh. In Pakistan, between 97 and 173 million people consumed biofortified wheat (39%-70% of the population). In Nigeria, biofortified maize was consumed by 42-66 million people (18%-29% of the population) and biofortified cassava by 25-38 million people (11%-17% of the population).

Our method estimates on-farm and off-farm reach and the reach/coverage of biofortified foods with visible and invisible traits. Because there is insufficient primary or secondary data describing the intake of biofortified foods, we estimated a range for off-farm reach. We estimate that in 2023, between 177 and 293 million people consumed the 4 biofortified crops explored in this analysis. This approach can be used to estimate the reach and coverage of other biofortified crops in other countries. More information about the consumption of these foods is usually needed to improve the accuracy of national reach and coverage estimates.