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Infant Mortality Expectation and Fertility Behavior in Rural Malawi.

Adeline Delavande1, Hans-Peter Kohler2, Ali Vergili3

  • 1Nova School of Business and Economics, Lisbon, Portugal; Economics Department, University of Technology Sydney, Ultimo, New South Wales, Australia.

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|April 17, 2026
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Higher perceived child mortality risk increases fertility rates. This study found that a 10% rise in expected child deaths in Malawi boosted the likelihood of having a child by 14%.

Keywords:
Demographic transitionFertilityInfant mortality expectationMalawi

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Population Studies
  • Reproductive Health

Background:

  • The relationship between child mortality and fertility is a long-standing area of population research.
  • Understanding fertility responses to expected child mortality, known as hoarding behavior, is crucial for population dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the impact of individual subjective expectations of infant mortality on fertility behavior.
  • To analyze the 'hoarding mechanism' in the context of child mortality expectations and fertility decisions.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized unique data from the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health.
  • Employed instrumental variables (average parental ratings of children's health) to address endogeneity and omitted variable bias in infant mortality expectations.
  • Analyzed the effect of community-level child mortality expectations on the propensity to have a child.

Main Results:

  • A 10-percentage-point increase in community-level child mortality expectations correlated with a 14-percentage-point rise in the propensity to have a child.
  • This effect was observed from a baseline propensity of 39%.
  • Results support the hoarding mechanism, where higher perceived mortality risk leads to increased fertility.

Conclusions:

  • Subjective expectations of infant mortality significantly influence fertility behavior.
  • The hoarding mechanism is empirically supported in this Malawian context.
  • Findings have implications for understanding fertility trends and population growth in high-mortality settings.