A rapid-screening analytical framework for PFAS health risk assessment in groundwater: Managing plume evolution and...

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) pose persistent threats to groundwater sustainability and public health. Traditional numerical models for simulating PFAS transport are computationally intensive, which limits their application in rapid contamination screening. To overcome this limitation, a two-dimensional analytical model is developed to couple PFAS transport processes (advection, dispersion, adsorption, and degradation) with a probabilistic health risk assessment framework. The model enables the efficient simulation of spatiotemporal plume evolution and the quantification of carcinogenic risks from continuous point sources. Sensitivity analyses indicate that the vertical source location primarily controls the spatial pathway and exposure timing, while source intensity exhibits a strong linear relationship with peak concentrations. Mechanistically, an increased retardation factor induces a linear time lag delaying breakthrough, whereas a higher attenuation coefficient leads to exponential decay, reducing the plume extent by up to 77%. Furthermore, the integrated assessment identifies Carcinogenic Risk (CR) as the dominant constraint for groundwater safety, with impact zones dynamically expanding and significantly exceeding the United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) advisory limit (1.4 × 10^-7). Compared to conventional numerical simulations, the analytical framework provides a computationally efficient tool to delineate risk boundaries and support timely environmental decision-making.