Low Genetic Diversity in Climate Change Refugia Threatens the Endangered Himalayan Red Panda Ailurus fulgens

Accelerated global warming in the Himalayas poses a significant threat to its unique ecosystem and endemic species, particularly the endangered Himalayan red panda (Ailurus fulgens). It faces severe threats from climate change, habitat fragmentation, and anthropogenic pressures. To assess its conservation status, we evaluated genetic diversity, population structure, and habitat suitability under past, current, and future climate. Using ensemble distribution modeling and landscape genetics approaches, we examined mitochondrial DNA control regions and 12 microsatellite loci, identifying 35 genetically distinct individuals from 196 samples. Two genetic clusters were observed, which included a western population with low genetic diversity (h = 0.200) and high inbreeding (F_IS = 0.178) and a central-eastern population with moderate diversity. Three climate change refugia, persisting since the Last Glacial Maximum, were identified, which covered 52% of the current habitat, but with low genetic diversity. Habitat suitability is projected to decrease by 47.37% (2050) and 51.28% (2070) under the SSP 585 scenario. Approximately 52.76% of the habitat lies within the refugia, with 12 potential linkages between the core habitats, although the western region exhibited high resistance to movement. Urgent actions are needed to protect refugia, enhance connectivity, and promote gene flow to ensure the resilience of this species against climate change and human threats.