Cost and efficiency of universal versus selective next generation sequencing for advanced stage endometrial cancer

We sought to identify efficient tumor molecular profiling strategies for patients with newly diagnosed stage III-IVA endometrial cancer.

We constructed a decision tree model to compare molecular profiling strategies. We considered testing options of mismatch repair (MMR), p53, and HER2 immunohistochemistry (IHC), and next generation sequencing (NGS, assessing for MMR protein, TP53 and POLE mutations). Strategies included (1) MMR/p53: MMR/p53 IHC at diagnosis, with HER2 IHC if p53 abnormal and NGS reserved for first progression/recurrence; (2) Selective NGS: MMR/p53 IHC at diagnosis, with immediate NGS and HER2 IHC if p53 abnormal, otherwise NGS at recurrence; (3) Universal NGS: NGS and HER2 IHC at diagnosis for all. Molecular subtype prevalence and six-year recurrence-free survival by subtype were derived from the GOG-0258 randomized trial. Outcomes included costs (2024 US$), timely NGS results (results available at recurrence/progression), and unnecessary NGS (NGS performed in patients who remained recurrence-free).

Universal NGS resulted in unnecessary NGS in 57% of patients who remained recurrence-free, compared with 7% under the Selective NGS strategy and 0% with MMR/p53. MMR/p53 was the least costly strategy (mean cost $3772), followed by Selective NGS ($4186) and Universal NGS ($6250). Compared with MMR/p53, Selective NGS cost $2571 per additional timely NGS result, while Universal NGS cost $7600 per additional timely NGS result compared with Selective NGS.

Selective molecular profiling of newly diagnosed stage III-IVA endometrial cancers using MMR and p53 IHC with reflex to NGS for p53-abnormal tumors improves testing efficiency and reduces unnecessary NGS compared with universal upfront NGS testing.