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Planning and evaluating climate resilience programs in Southern Africa
Caitlin Blaser Mapitsa1, Malebajoa Anicia Maoela2, Samukelisiwe Mkhize1
1Witwatersrand University, 2 St David's Place, Donald Gordon Building, Parktown, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Evaluation and Program Planning
|April 18, 2026
Summary
Climate resilience in Southern Africa requires frameworks beyond exposure and adaptive capacity. An expanded model including preparedness, response, and recovery is crucial for addressing structural inequalities and diverse vulnerabilities.
Area of Science:
- Climate Change Adaptation
- Social Vulnerability Studies
- Resilience Programming
Background:
- Southern Africa faces escalating climate risks, including extreme weather and droughts, exacerbated by deep structural inequalities.
- Existing climate resilience frameworks, based on IPCC dimensions (exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity), often overlook crucial social, institutional, and relational factors.
- There is a growing need for context-sensitive planning and evaluation frameworks for climate resilience programs in the region.
Purpose of the Study:
- To examine how vulnerability is conceptualized and addressed in Southern African climate resilience programs.
- To propose an expanded vulnerability framework that better captures social and institutional dimensions.
- To inform the design and evaluation of more effective climate adaptation strategies.
Main Methods:
- Qualitative, comparative case study of three climate resilience programs (2018-2023).
- Utilized primary data (surveys, interviews, participatory appraisals) and secondary sources.
- Conducted a structured cross-case analysis of vulnerability conceptualization, program design, and evaluation.
Main Results:
- Vulnerability is shaped by governance failures, land tenure insecurity, social protection limits, and marginalization of indigenous knowledge, in addition to climatic exposure.
- Participatory and iterative program approaches effectively revealed intersectional and structural dimensions of vulnerability.
- Current evaluation frameworks often neglect material, relational, and subjective dimensions of wellbeing.
Conclusions:
- An expanded vulnerability framework incorporating mitigation/preparedness, response capacity, and recovery capacity is essential for Southern Africa.
- Resilience programming must adopt a holistic approach integrating material, relational, and subjective wellbeing.
- Evaluation frameworks need to evolve beyond economic and agricultural indicators to encompass broader aspects of resilience and wellbeing.
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