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Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods
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Evolutionarily Optimal Risk Aversion.

Chmura1, Nguyen2, Biermann1

  • 1Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham, UK.

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|April 20, 2026
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

People adjust their risk tolerance based on what others do, influencing health, safety, and environmental risk management. Understanding this helps improve risk communication and adaptive strategies.

Keywords:
HS&Eevolution of preferencesrisk attitudesrisky choice

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Area of Science:

  • Decision Sciences
  • Behavioral Economics
  • Risk Management

Background:

  • Health, Safety, and Environmental (HS&E) risk governance often involves benchmark information.
  • Individuals and organizations revise risk acceptability thresholds based on observed behaviors.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify risk-acceptability thresholds in experimental settings.
  • To understand how these thresholds are updated by benchmark information.
  • To develop a theoretical framework for adaptive risk aversion.

Main Methods:

  • Experimental choice situations were designed to elicit risk-acceptability thresholds.
  • A theoretical framework was developed linking behavior to risk aversion.
  • The model predicts adjustments in risk aversion based on social comparison.

Main Results:

  • Risk-acceptability thresholds are identifiable and modifiable by benchmark information.
  • Observed peer behavior influences individual risk aversion.
  • Distinction made between confidence-driven inertia and trust-driven overreaction.

Conclusions:

  • Benchmark information significantly updates risk-acceptability thresholds.
  • The theoretical framework provides insights into adaptive risk management.
  • Findings offer actionable guidance for HS&E risk communication and adaptive strategies.